Dodgers try to pull even with Phils in NLCS

Baseball Betting Lines

10/13/2008 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Dodgers will try to even the National League Championship Series at two games apiece this evening, when they play Game 4 of the best-of-seven set against the Philadelphia Phillies at Dodger Stadium.

Los Angeles picked up a much-needed win in Game 3 on Sunday, as Blake DeWitt's three-run triple highlighted a five-run first inning and Hiroki Kuroda threw six-plus strong innings to help the Dodgers to a 7-2 victory.

Manny Ramirez and Casey Blake also singled in runs as part of the first-inning outburst. Ramirez has now driven in a run in nine of his last 10 LCS games, including seven straight.

The benches cleared in the third inning, soon after Kuroda threw a high pitch over Shane Victorino's head, and Dodgers catcher Russell Martin was hit by a pitch twice during the game.

Kuroda (2-0) was charged with five hits and two runs, and relievers Cory Wade and Jonathan Broxton combined to yield a pair of singles the rest of the way.

Pedro Feliz and Pat Burrell had RBI singles for the Phillies, while 45-year- old Jamie Moyer (0-2), the oldest pitcher to ever start an LCS game, was blistered for six hits and six runs in 1 1/3 innings.

The Dodgers now turn to righty Derek Lowe on short rest. Lowe absorbed the loss in Game 1 of this series on Thursday, as he allowed three runs (2 earned) and six hits in 5 1/3 frames. He was cruising along in that one until the sixth inning, when he gave up a pair of home runs.

Lowe, though, has been tremendous against the Phils over the course of his career, going 4-1 against them with a pair of saves and a 3.02 ERA in 11 games, seven of which have been starts.

Philadelphia will counter with righty Joe Blanton, who was superb in the Phillies' NLDS clincher over Milwaukee. Blanton gave up a runs and five hits in that one, while striking out seven batters without a walk.

Blanton is 1-0 with a 3.32 ERA in three starts against the Dodgers. He did not get a decision the last time he faced them, but surrendered just a run and six hits in six innings.

Each team won four games from one another in the season series, with each capturing a four-game sweep on their home turf. Philadelphia, though, has lost its last five at Chavez Ravine.

These teams are also no stranger to one another in the postseason, having met on three other occasions. However, they have not met up in the playoffs since the Phils defeated the Dodgers, 3-1, to advance to the 1983 World Series.

Los Angeles, though, defeated the Phils the first two times these teams squared off in NLCS play.

Unfortunately, the winner of the past three LCS matchups between these two has gone on to lose the World Series.

Game 5 of this series will be played on Wednesday at Chavez Ravine.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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