05/10/2008 - Wolfsburg, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Marcelinho scored in the 16th minute to give Wolfsburg an early lead and, after Stuttgart went down a man in the 18th, the hosts rolled to a 4-0 win in the German Bundesliga on Saturday.
Wolfsburg pulled level in points with Stuttgart in the battle for the league's two UEFA Cup berths. Bayer Leverkusen defeated Rostock, 2-1, to join those two clubs and Hamburg, which lost to Energie 2-0, with 51 points entering the last week of the season.
Rostock and Duisburg, which lost 3-2 to champions Bayern Munich, failed to get out of the bottom three and will be relegated to the Bundesliga 2 next season. Arminia Bielefeld, which tied Borussia Dortmund 2-2, and Nurnberg, which lost to Hertha Berlin 1-0, will decide the final relegated team next week.
At the top of the league, Werder Bremen blasted Hannover, 6-1, to maintain the second spot. Schalke edged Eintracht, 1-0, to remain two points behind as the teams battle for positioning in the Champions League.
Wolfsburg helped set up the exciting final week when Marcelinho took advantage of numerous poor clearances by Stuttgart to score the opening goal. Defender Marcel Schafer eventually took a long blast that Stuttgart goalkeeper Raphael Schafter couldn't handle.
Marcelinho got to the rebound first and, after a deflection, was denied by the goalie on his first shot but buried another rebound from a tough angle on the left end line.
Two minutes later, Stuttgart captain Fernando Meira was given a red card for swinging his arm and fist into the chest of Wolfsburg's Grafite.
Edin Dzeko doubled Wolfsburg's lead in the 22nd minute with a perfect curling shot into the upper right corner from 25 yards and Ricardo Costa and Ashkan Dejagah added goals in the second half.
Bayer Leverkusen kept its European hopes alive thanks to penalty kick goals by Simon Rolfes and Gonzalo Castro. Rostock, which needed a victory to maintain a slim chance of survival, got a goal from Addy-Waku Menga in the 67th minute but couldn't take advantage of a man advantage over the final seven minutes.
Energie got goals from Stiven Rivic and Dennis Sorensen to secure its spot in the Bundesliga for next season with the win over Hamburg, which could have all but locked up a UEFA Cup spot with a win.
Leverkusen leads the group of four teams based on goal differential, followed by Hamburg, Wolfsburg and Stuttgart.
Bayern, which wrapped up the title last week, scored three goals in the first 20 minutes - including two from Lukas Podolski - to end Duisburg's chances of remaining in the Bundesliga.
Werder Bremen got goals from six players - Hugo Almeida, Naldo, Tim Borowski, Ivan Klasnic, Markus Rosenberg and Aaron Hunt - in its big win over Hannover.
Schalke kept pace with Mladen Krstajic's goal in the 65th minute in the slim win over Eintracht.
Arminia Bielefeld nearly had relegation off its mind with a 2-1 lead and a man advantage in the final 10 minutes against Borussia, but an own goal left the club's survival in doubt.
Bielefeld is two points ahead of Nurnberg, which was sunk by Raffael's 74th minute goal, entering the final week.
Mimoun Azaouagh, Christoph Dabrowski and Stanislav Sestak scored as Bochum won 3-1 over Karlsruher in the only game with no meaning to European berths or the drop zone this week.
On May 17, Borussia Dortmund hosts Wolfsburg, Hamburg hosts Karlsruher, Bayer Leverkusen hosts Werder Bremen, Stuttgart hosts Arminia Bielefeld, Nurnberg hosts Schalke, Bayern Munich hosts Hertha Berlin, Eintracht hosts Duisburg, Hannover hosts Energie and Bochum hosts Rostock.
<< Yankees place P Albaladejo on DL with elbow injury
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Berlin, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - World No. 2 Ana Ivanovic was
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Glasgow, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nacho Novo scored twice as Rangers topped
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AP source: D'Antoni accepts Knicks' offer >>
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Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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