05/11/2008 - Milan, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Inter Milan failed in its second attempt to secure a third straight Serie A title, finishing 2-2 with Siena at the San Siro while Roma beat Atalanta 2-1, cutting Inter's lead to just one point with one game to play.
Inter will finish the season at relegation-battling Parma, while Roma will hope Inter drops points for the third consecutive game and the capital club secures all three against Catania.
Patrick Vieira put Inter ahead 11 minutes into the match, but Siena answered 20 minutes later through Massimo Maccarone. Mario Balotelli's third goal of the season right before halftime gave the Nerazzuri a 2-1 lead, but the visitors responded once again through a terrific strike from Houssine Kharja with 20 minutes to play.
Inter was handed a chance to get the win in the 78th minute when Marco Materazzi drew a questionable penalty kick, but his effort from the spot was stopped by Siena goalkeeper Alex Manninger.
The home side got off to a great start with Balotelli's corner kick finding the head of Vieira inside the box. The former Arsenal man then headed his side ahead by beating Manninger from close range.
The Inter defense gave the goal back in the 31st minute, however, when Siena's Kharja split the back line with a through ball, allowing Maccarone to get in on goal and slip the ball underneath Inter keeper Julio Cesar.
Another dead-ball situation allowed Inter to take a one-goal lead into the half as Maicon's long throw into the box was flicked through the face of goal by Vieira to Balotelli, who was left with an easy finish at the back post.
The home side was just 45 minutes away from the title, but Kharja put the celebrations on hold with a fantastic effort from 25 yards that found the lower corner to level the match.
Inter had one last chance to grab the title eight minutes later when Siena's Christian Rigano was called for bringing down Materazzi inside the box. It was a debatable call, but Manninger made it a mute point when he came up with a diving stop to deny the Inter defender from the penalty spot.
Roma got goals from Christian Panucci and Daniele De Rossi to hold off Atalanta, giving themselves a shot to steal the title on the season's final day.
Third-place Juventus finished 1-1 with Catania, which is now two points clear of the drop zone, while last-place Livorno will be headed down next year after losing 1-0 to Torino.
Empoli is in trouble after losing 2-0 to Reggina, leaving the team three points from safety with one game left. Parma occupies the final relegation spot heading into the last week after they suffered a 3-1 defeat to Fiorentina, which jumped into fourth place after AC Milan was stunned 3-1 by Napoli.
Sampdoria improved its European chances with a 2-0 win over Palermo, Cagliari downed Udinese 2-0 and Lazio got goals from Goran Pandev and Tommaso Rocchi in a 2-0 win over Genoa.
<< Second day qualifying for Indy a washout
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Indianapolis 500 qualifying even before it began. No drivers were able to take
to the track.
Qualifying for positions 12-33 will restart next Saturday, the thir
<< United captures title with win over Wigan
Manchester, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cristiano Ronaldo and Ryan Giggs scored
goals to help Manchester United retain the Premiership title with a 2-0 win
over Wigan at The JJB Stadium on Sunday.
United entered the day level on 84 point
<< Otto holds off Wilson to win Italian Open
Milan, Italy (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hennie Otto fended off a stiff charge from
Oliver Wilson on Sunday to win the Italian Open, shooting a three-under 69 in
the final round to claim his first European Tour victory.
Otto, who shot a 63 in
<< O's select contract of Cintron
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Baltimore Orioles selected the
contract of infielder Alex Cintron from Triple-A Norfolk on Sunday.
Baltimore signed the 29-year-old Cintron to a minor league deal on March 31.
He batted .288
Diamondbacks' Johnson scratched from start >>
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Randy
Johnson was scratched from his scheduled start against the Chicago Cubs on
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Edgar Gonzalez was tabbed to start in Johnson's pl
Zambrano, Johnson scratched from Cubs/D-Backs game due to rain >>
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rainy conditions at Wrigley Field caused both
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pitchers, Carlos Zambrano and Randy Johnson, respectively, on Sunday.
Weather perm
Ljubicic wins war in Hamburg opener >>
Hamburg, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ivan Ljubicic of Croatia was among a trio
of winners during the opening day of play at the Hamburg Masters Series open
on Sunday.
Ljubicic survived a three hour war to edge Steve Darcis of Belgium, 6-7
Millwood sent to 15-day DL >>
Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Texas Rangers placed starting
pitcher Kevin Millwood on the 15-day disabled list on Sunday with a strained
right groin.
Millwood left Saturday's 6-4 victory over the Oakland Athletics af
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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