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08/25/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Rafael Benitez era at Inter Milan got off to a good start this past Saturday, as the Spaniard claimed his first piece of silverware in a 3-1 win over Roma in the Italian Super Cup.
Benitez will have the chance to add another trophy to the cabinet on Friday, when the Nerazzurri faces Atletico Madrid in the UEFA Super Cup, a match that pits the Champions League champions, Inter Milan, against Europa League winners Atletico.
However, Benitez is only in position to win that title because of the work done by previous Inter boss Jose Mourinho, a fact that the Special One was all too happy to point out.
In fact, the two longtime rivals have had a nice little verbal sparring match going on since last season ended, with Benitez claiming that Mourinho is not the right man for the Real Madrid job that he currently holds, while Mourinho has made it quite clear how large of a shadow he has left behind at Inter.
The two have had their share of battles over the years, with Benitez and his Liverpool team twice eliminating Mourinho's Chelsea in the semifinals of the Champions League.
But things have changed dramatically in the past few years, with Benitez wearing out his welcome at Anfield, while all Mourinho did last season was help Inter become the first Italian team to ever win the treble, claiming the Serie A title, Coppa Italia and Champions League in the same season.
So it is ironic that Benitez would be the man to replace Mourinho at Inter, placing himself firmly in the shadow of a man whom he used to hold the upper hand on.
Inter president Massimo Moratti believes that Benitez is one of the few men who is able to take the place of Mourinho, although that still remains to be seen.
"Only someone like Benitez could take the place of a coach like Mourinho," Moratti told Corriere dello Sport.
"I know Benitez has a good record against Jose Mourinho. That's a sign he does his research, works well, and above all does not get the big games wrong.
"It is also important that he has already made his mark in Europe. We want to achieve more in this area."
While it's true that Benitez has had European success, winning the UEFA Cup with Valencia as well as reaching the final of the Champions League on two occasions with Liverpool, he was never able to duplicate that kind of success to the league with the Reds.
Liverpool consistently finished behind Chelsea in the Premiership table while Mourinho was there, and now that the Special One has raised the bar even higher at Inter, there is a distinct possibility that Benitez will once again come up short.
He inherits an Inter side that is nearly the same team as the one that finished last season, minus talented but troubled striker Mario Balotelli, making Inter once again an overwhelming favorite to win the league as well as the Coppa Italia.
Inter is among the favorites in the Champions League, but no team has retained the title of European champions since AC Milan in 1989 and 1990, and with heavyweight sides like Barcelona and Mourinho's Real Madrid among others, winning that competition again is not likely.
Basically, if Inter fails to win another treble - which is about as likely as Benitez and Mourinho sitting down to Christmas dinner together - the first season of Benitez at Inter will be viewed as a step in the wrong direction.
During his time at Inter, Mourinho clashed with everyone from rival coaches to media members as well as the football federation itself, so that is one area that Benitez can possibly do better than his nemesis.
But this is not a popularity contest, and once Benitez slips up for the first time, those same media members will likely be the first ones in line to offer up criticism about how Benitez is no Mourinho.
At Inter, there is a very large shadow indeed.
<< White Sox place Putz, Thornton on DL
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago White Sox have placed relievers
J.J. Putz and Matt Thornton on the 15-day disabled list.
Putz left Tuesday's 7-5 win over Baltimore after throwing three pitches and
has been diagnosed with ri
<< Bower named McNeese State's starting QB
Lake Charles, LA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - McNeese State has named Jacob Bower as its
starting quarterback for the 2010 season.
The Idaho native and former Tulsa quarterback is a 25-year-old graduate student
at McNeese State.
He will see action
<< Rays activate Niemann from DL
Anaheim, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tampa Bay Rays have reinstated pitcher Jeff
Niemann from the 15-day disabled list to start Wednesday's game versus the
Angels.
Niemann, who is 10-3 with a 3.12 ERA in 22 games this season, was on the
<< CFL West: Stamps and Riders to battle for first
Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The West Division returns to play this week
after a bye, with the two basement dwellers set to host the top teams. The
Edmonton Eskimos and BC Lions have a lot of work cut out for them to get back
into the swi
Twins claim Flores off waivers >>
Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Twins have claimed pitcher
Randy Flores off waivers from the Colorado Rockies.
The left-hander was 2-0 with a 2.96 earned-run average in 47 appearances for
the Rockies this season.
To
Pittsburgh Steelers 2010 Season Preview >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Pittsburgh Steelers enter the 2010 campaign intent on
re-establishing their identity in the wake of a season of unfulfilled
expectations, followed by an offseason embroiled in turmoil.
It's been a long and arduous 18 m
No superstars just good horses in Pacific Classic >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The $1 million Pacific Classic guarantees
the victor a spot in this year's Breeders' Cup Classic at Churchill Downs.
It's unlikely that the horse will the favorite for the end-of-year race, but
he will
Blake exits Pilot Pen >>
New Haven, CT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two-time champion James Blake was a
second-round loser Wednesday at the $750,000 Pilot Pen Tennis event, a
final hardcourt U.S. Open tune-up.
Seventh-seeded rising Ukrainian Alexandr Dolgopolov dismisse
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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